Breast cancer cases worldwide are projected to increase by 38 percent by 2050, according to a new report from the World Health Organization‘s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
The study, published Monday in Nature Medicine, also forecasts a 68 percent rise in annual deaths from the disease if current trends continue. By mid-century, the world could face 3.2 million new breast cancer cases and 1.1 million related deaths annually.
“Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide and one woman dies from the disease, and these statistics are worsening,” said Dr. Joanne Kim, an IARC scientist and co-author of the report.
Breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women globally and the second most common cancer overall. In 2022, approximately 2.3 million new cases were diagnosed, resulting in 670,000 deaths.
The report highlights significant regional disparities. The highest incidence rates were recorded in Australia, New Zealand, North America, and Northern Europe, while South-Central Asia and parts of Africa showed the lowest rates. However, mortality rates were highest in Melanesia, Polynesia, and Western Africa, where limited healthcare access contributes to poorer outcomes.
The survival gap between wealthy and poor countries is substantial. In high-income countries, 83 percent of diagnosed women survive, while in low-income countries, more than half of those diagnosed die from the disease.
“The burden will be disproportionately felt in low- and middle-income countries, where access to early detection, treatment and care remains limited,” the findings indicate.
To address this growing crisis, WHO launched the Global Breast Cancer Initiative in 2021, which aims to reduce breast cancer mortality rates by 2.5 percent annually, potentially preventing 2.5 million deaths by 2040.
Dr. Isabelle Soerjomataram, Deputy Head of IARC’s Cancer Surveillance Branch, reiterated the importance of high-quality cancer data to inform better policies in lower-income regions.
“Continued progress in early diagnosis and improved access to treatment are essential. These will help to address the global gap in breast cancer and ensure that the goal of reducing suffering and death from breast cancer is achieved by all countries worldwide,” she said.
The report calls for stronger health systems, increased funding for screening and treatment, and the adoption of cost-effective prevention policies to combat what has become an urgent global health challenge.
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