Despite concerns about potential election-related violence, a new report has revealed overwhelming public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process ahead of the 2026 Osun State Governorship Election.
According to the Political Violence Risk Assessment released by the Centre for Law Enforcement Education (CLEEN) Foundation during a virtual stakeholder meeting on July 23, 2026, approximately 60% of respondents believe the election will be peaceful. More encouragingly, 73% are confident that elections in their specific areas will remain calm, while 71% expressed trust in INEC’s preparedness and 70% in security agencies’ capacity to manage risks.
However, the Foundation warned that misinformation, delayed electoral processes, or perceived bias could erode this public trust.
The assessment, which surveyed 669 residents across Osun State (comprising 363 men and 306 women) combines public perception with documented security incidents to identify potential hotspots and recommend preventive measures.
While public confidence remains high, the report also raises alarm about specific high-risk areas. Irepodun (Ilobu) emerged as the highest-risk Local Government Area, classified as a “Severe Risk” zone, with 52.6% of residents expecting election-related violence. Oriade (Ipetu-Ijesa) and Ife Central were also designated as high-risk areas.
Notably, Atakunmosa West emerged as an “emerging risk area” despite recording no documented security incidents between January and July 2026. An alarming 62.5% of residents there believed violence could occur, the highest perceived risk among all surveyed LGAs.
The report, presented by Oluwamayowa Olaniyi, made several key recommendations: security agencies should increase professional deployment in hotspots, strengthen intelligence gathering, and establish rapid-response teams. INEC was urged to deploy backup BVAS machines, position technical support teams in hotspot areas, and promptly address misinformation.
Political parties were advised to discourage violence, avoid hate speech, and conduct issue-based campaigns, while CSOs and the media were urged to intensify observation and promote peace messaging. Citizens were encouraged to reject vote buying, verify information before sharing, and participate peacefully.
During the interactive session, participants, including AkweyaTV’s Frederick Gata Stephen, described the report as timely and insightful. Both CLEEN Foundation and Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) have been invited to present the findings at a wider stakeholder meeting expected to include the Osun State Resident Electoral Commissioner.
In closing remarks, the CLEEN Foundation Executive Director, Mr Peter Maduoma, reaffirmed that preventing electoral violence requires collaboration among government institutions, security agencies, political parties, civil society, the media, and citizens. The assessment aims to help stakeholders identify hotspots, strengthen security, and safeguard the integrity of the 2026 Osun State Governorship Election.
